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By Ristic M.M., Popovic B.C.

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On 5 December 2011, SpaceX announced the flight would now probably be flown in the February–March time frame. One of the reasons for the delay was the Russians, who weren’t happy with the software updates supplied by SpaceX, although Roscosmos and RSC Energia had signed approval for Dragon’s arrival at the ISS. One of the misgivings highlighted by the Russians was Dragon’s approach and arrival point: the Russians preferred that Dragon use the same approach points as the European Automated Transfer Vehicle (ATV) and Japanese H-I Transfer Vehicle (HTV) used on their maiden flights.

Major design modifications resulted in a huge price increase and then development difficulties with the Space Shuttle Main Engines caused more delays. Just five years after its maiden flight in 1981, the program ground to a halt following the Challenger disaster. More modifications and upgrades were called for. The beginning of the end was the Columbia accident in 2002. The cost? For the 30-year service life adjusted for inflation: US$196 billion, which equates to a cost of about US$450 million per flight.

The commercial route to building a manned spacecraft is one defined by a process of collaboration. The commercial companies still go through the same steps as NASA did, but in this case it is the commercial company doing the designing and testing, although they do this in close partnership with NASA. It’s a little like a group effort. Although the commercial company is free to design the transportation system however they see fit, at the end of the day, the system must meet the agency’s rigid requirements.

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A bivariate uniform autoregressive process by Ristic M.M., Popovic B.C.


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